downward sloping

In 2019, the yield curve again inverted, worrying economists about another downturn. In early 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic did, in fact, trigger a global recession; however, no economists think that the yield curve was able to predict the pandemic. An inverted Treasury yield curve is one of the most reliable leading indicators of an impending recession. Simply put, asking for cash with a precautionary motive protects against uncertain future conditions.

pure expectations theory

Moreover, Keynes pointed out that the actual rate of interest cannot fall to zero because the expected rate cannot fall to zero. This is due to complete elasticity of the liquidity preference curve at a very low rate of interest. This is known as absolute liquidity preference or liquidity trap, a term coined by Denis Robertson. If an individual spends more money to buy goods and services, he will be left with less money to purchase income-earning assets like bonds.

If the balance of market expectations is changed, there will be a shift in the schedule. Central bank policy designed to increase the money supply may, therefore, be met by an upward shift of speculative demand function leaving the rate of interest virtually unaffected. The money market reaches Money balances equilibrium when the down­ward sloping demand curve for money intersects the vertical supply curve and the rate of interest is determined at r0.

Expectations Theory

Assuming no change in expectations, an increase in the quantity of money (via open-market operations) for the speculative motive will lower the rate of interest. Thus, given the schedule or curve of liquidity preference for speculative motive, an increase in the quantity of money brings down the rate of interest. In part of the figure, LPS is the cur of liquidity preference for speculative motive.

We also reference original research from other reputable publishers where appropriate. You can learn more about the standards we follow in producing accurate, unbiased content in oureditorial policy. The curve has remained inverted through much of 2022.

Preferred Habitat Theory

A yield curve illustrates the interest rates on bonds of increasing maturities. The bankruptcy of the Enron Corporation increased the spread between Baa and Aaa rated bonds. D) decrease and the bondʹs return will become less uncertain, meaning the expected return on the corporate bond will rise. C) decrease and the bondʹs return will become less uncertain, meaning the expected return on the corporate bond will fall.


A debt instrument indicating that a corporation has borrowed a certain amount of money and promises to repay it in the future under clearly defined terms is called a ________. The term structure of interest rates is the relationship between ________. The ________ is the compound annual rate of interest earned on a debt security purchased on a given date and held to maturity.

Speculative Motive

The progressive diminution of yield would lead to a progressive fall in the rate of interest and ultimately it might be zero. Such a course of events can be described as secular stagnation or long-run sluggish was caused by lack of capital investment due to low, about zero return. Money is also held for the purpose of meeting unforeseen emergencies.

  • To carry out systematic retirement of bonds, a corporation makes semiannual or annual payments that are used to retire bonds by purchasing them in the marketplace.
  • D) Because coupon payments on municipal bonds are exempt from federal income tax, the expected after-tax return on them will be higher for individuals in lower income tax brackets.
  • Nominal rate of interest is equal to the sum of the real rate of interest plus an inflation premium plus a risk premium.
  • An A rated bond should provide investors with a higher yield than an otherwise identical B rated bond.
  • In general, long-term yields are typically higher than short-term yield due to the higher risk involved in long-term investment.
  • In a bond indenture, the term “security interest” refers to collateral pledged against the bond.

The classical economists thought that in the long run the of interest would fall. Keynes agreed with this view on the ground that in course of time capital accumulation would grow large and the yield from new invest­ments would tend to diminish. Moreover, the people who take decision regarding the purchase of commodities are the same people who take decision regarding the purchase of bonds. Thus, peoples’ behaviour in the commodity market will determine their behav­iour in the money market, too. Of the country, then the bond market, prices, and yield will definitely take a hit and change accordingly. Interest rate risk and the time to maturity have a relationship that is best characterized as ________.

Traditional Theories of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

The market required return for each bond is 10 percent. When using present value to determine the prices of the bonds, Danno will find that ________. A) there is no difference in price B) the price of F is greater than H C) the price of H is greater than F D) he needs more information before determining the prices. Similarly, suppose the short-term rates are significantly lower than the long-term rates.

Monetary PolicyMonetary policy refers to the steps taken by a country’s central bank to control the money supply for economic stability. For example, policymakers manipulate money circulation for increasing employment, GDP, price stability by using tools such as interest rates, reserves, bonds, etc. It gives a fair understanding of the interest rates to the investors willing to invest in any type of bonds, short term or long term. Long-term rates used in theory are typically government bond rates, which helps the analyzers to predict the short-term rates and also to forecast where these short-term rates will trade in the future. Nominal interest rates and yield curves Economic forecasters…

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In fact, a bad bet on Russian interest is largely credited for the demise of Long-Term Capital Management, a well-known hedge fund run by bond trader John Meriwether. Considering the consistency of this pattern, an inverted yield will likely form again if the current expansion fades to recession. The second criticism is that this theory assumes a certain level of income. If we look at the figure above, there is a liquidity trap, and the range between R-Min and R-Max is known as a liquidity trap, so the interest rate only fluctuates under this trap. Therefore, the above three motives are the reasons for the liquid funds held by the individuals. An increase in Money Supply leads to a fall in Interest Rates .


Under normal circumstances, the yield curve is not inverted since debt with longer maturities typically carry higher interest rates than nearer-term ones. The expectations theory aims to help investors make decisions based upon a forecast of future interest rates. The theory uses long-term rates, typically from government bonds, to forecast the rate for short-term bonds.

C) a decline in short-term interest rates in the near future and a rise further out in the future. D) a decline in short-term interest rates in the near future and an even steeper decline further out in the future. An important implication of the liquidity preference theory is the fact that forward rates are expected to be biased because the market’s expectation of future rates includes a liquidity premium. A positively sloping yield curve may thus be the result of expectation that short-term rates will go up or simply because of a positive liquidity premium. The size of the liquidity premium may also be time-varying.

Explain this yield curve using the unbiased expectations theory and the liquidity

When the of interest is low at r2 and bond prices are high capital losses are anticipated and larger speculative money balances are held, i.e., Md2 in order to avoid capital losses on bonds. The basic motive for holding speculative money balances was therefore to avoid losses in a declining securities market. In order to understand this point more clearly, it is necessary to consider the relationship between bond prices and the rate of interest. A positive butterfly is an unequal shift in a bond yield curve in which long- and short-term yields increase by a higher degree than medium-term yields.

Buy Short Treasuries: Use A Ladder And Keep Cash In Reserve – Seeking Alpha

Buy Short Treasuries: Use A Ladder And Keep Cash In Reserve.

Posted: Fri, 24 Jun 2022 07:00:00 GMT [source]

Keynes was the first economist to point out that it costs money to hold money and the rate of interest is the opportunity cost of money holding, i.e., by holding money people lose the opportunity to earn interest. So, at low rates of interest people hold as much money as possible and at high rates as less money as possible. In the basic valuation model, risk is generally incorporated into the ________. The riskiness of publicly traded bond issues is rated by independent agencies.

________ allow bondholders to purchase a certain number of shares of the firm’s common stock at a specified price over a certain period of time. Stock purchase warrants are instruments that give their holder the right to purchase a certain number of shares of the firm’s common stock at the market price over a certain period of time. The restrictive debt covenant that imposes fixed assets is to guarantee fixed-payment obligations by maintaining a specified level of fixed assets.

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